What to look for in Disney’s earnings
Walt Disney Co. has had a big film success with the revitalization of the “Star Wars” franchise but faces investor concerns over subscriber losses at its cable networks, in particular at ESPN.
Disney DIS, +0.22% will report first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Here’s what investors can expect:
Earnings: Disney is expected to report earnings of $1.45 per share for the first quarter, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet. That would be a 14% bump compared with the $1.27 a share Disney reported during the same period a year ago, when the company blew past the $1.07 FactSet consensus. Disney hasn’t missed Wall Street’s expectation on earnings since the second quarter of 2011.
Revenue: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Disney to post $14.8 billion in revenue, an increase of more than 10% compared with the $13.4 billion in revenue it reported in the same quarter last year. Disney’s cable networks are its biggest category for revenue. Analysts expect that area to contribute $4.5 billion, followed by $4.3 billion from its parks and resorts segment and $2.3 billion at its film studio, with the rest coming from its host of other categories.
Estimize estimates revenue at $14.9 billion, just above the FactSet consensus. Disney missed the revenue consensus on FactSet in the two most recent quarters and in three of the last 10 quarters.
Share price: Disney shares rose 11.5% over the course of last year, but have started 2016 on a dismal note as cord-cutting fears continue to loom over the industry. Shares of Disney are down more than 10% so far this year. Analysts following the stock and tracked by FactSet on average have a 12-month price target of $113.03, about 20% above current levels, and an overweight rating.
Other issues: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” has earned $899 million at the domestic box office and $1.1 billion internationally and is all but certain to bolster Disney earnings. Nomura analyst Anthony DiClemente said in a recent note the film’s strong performance is a good indicator for future home-entertainment sales in the company’s third quarter.
Sales in consumer products are still battling tough year-over-year comparisons thanks to “Frozen” products. DiClemente said Disney’s Force Friday sales, which were deferred until the release of the film, along with other “Star Wars” sales should help offset headwinds.
The big worry remains ESPN. In a regulatory filing in late November, Disney said it was losing ESPN subscribers by the millions. Earlier this year, Kanna Venkateshwar, an analyst at Barclays, said he expected Disney to underperform the sector as demand for the network deemed “the worldwide leader in sports” continues to waver.
“ESPN accounts for a disproportionate share of Disney’s cash flow and the gap between [operating cash flow], 7%, and EBIT growth, 17%, over the last two years likely already points to this pressure from subscriber losses,” he wrote.
To boot, many analysts believe ESPN paid too much for too many rights to air a number of games from a number of sports leagues. BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield said that could result in disappointing profitability going into 2017.
“ESPN now appears poised to become Disney’s most troubled business as consumer behavior shifts rapidly,” Greenfield wrote in his industry predictions for 2016.